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NCEI GHCN-Daily, Chico University Farm (USC00041715)","url":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/search/data-search/daily-summaries?stations=USC00041715","note":"daily maximum, minimum and precipitation since 8 January 1906, in °F and inches; whole years through 2000"},{"name":"NOAA NCEI GHCN-Daily, Orland (USC00046506)","url":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/search/data-search/daily-summaries?stations=USC00046506","note":"32 km west of Chico on the valley floor, whole years from 1904 to 2024"},{"name":"Cal-Adapt (Geospatial Innovation Facility, UC Berkeley) — LOCA-downscaled CMIP5, 32-model ensemble mean of the annual mean daily maximum","url":"https://cal-adapt.org","note":"Pierce, Cayan & Thrasher (2014) LOCA; RCP 4.5 and 8.5"},{"name":"Bonfils, C. & Lobell, D. (2007) \"Empirical evidence for a recent slowdown in irrigation-induced cooling\", PNAS 104:13582","url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0700144104","note":"the twentieth-century fall in Central Valley summer maximums, attributed to irrigation"},{"name":"Lobell, D.B. & Bonfils, C. (2008) \"The effect of irrigation on regional temperatures: a spatial and temporal analysis of trends in California, 1934–2002\", Journal of Climate 21:2063","url":"https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1755.1"}],"method":"Two stations, each compared only with itself. At the Chico University Farm (the century) and at Orland (the present), each calendar year with at least 300 valid daily maximums gives its count of days at or above 100 °F and 105 °F and its mean daily maximum; the same rule on minimums gives the frost-free season, the days between the last minimum at or below 32 °F in January–June and the first in July–December. Rain is the Farm's, summed by water year (October to September) for years with at least 340 valid days. Normals are means over the qualifying years of each window (the normals table says how many qualified): the Farm's 1911–1940 against 1971–2000, after which its reporting thins and, from 2019, all but stops; Orland's 1971–2000 and 1991–2020 against 2001–2024. Trends are Theil–Sen slopes at Orland over 1971 to now, per decade. The fall in hundred-degree days across the twentieth century, seen at both stations, is what Bonfils and Lobell documented across the Central Valley and attributed to irrigation, whose evaporation cools summer afternoons; the turn upward since 2000 is the regional warming they expected to overtake it. The projected rise is the change in Cal-Adapt's 32-model ensemble mean annual maximum from 1991–2020 (the historical run to 2005 joined to each scenario's own 2006–2020) to 2040–2069, in °F; the mid-century day count is a delta method — every daily maximum of Orland's 1991–2020 years is shifted by that rise and recounted — a shifted-distribution estimate, not a model's day count, and a projection under a named scenario, not a forecast.","fetched_at":"2026-11-02T12:22:24.523Z"}