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Bureau Population Estimates Program — county totals, vintage 2024 (co-est2024-alldata.csv)","url":"https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2024/counties/totals/co-est2024-alldata.csv","note":"SUMLEV 050, STATE 06: POPESTIMATE2020, POPESTIMATE2024; the comparator rule and Butte County's population"},{"name":"BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages — county area files, Butte (06007) and 7 comparator counties","url":"https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/area/06007.csv","note":"quarters 2014-Q1 to 2026-Q1; agglvl 70 (county total) and 71 own 5 (private): month1..3_emplvl, qtrly_estabs, avg_wkly_wage"},{"name":"BLS QCEW — annual averages 2014 and 2025, Butte and the comparator counties","url":"https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/06007.csv","note":"agglvl 74 own 5 (private by NAICS sector): annual_avg_emplvl, annual_avg_estabs, lq_annual_avg_emplvl; agglvl 73 own 5 (supersectors); agglvl 71 own 2, 3, 5; agglvl 70"},{"name":"Census Bureau County Business Patterns — county files 1998–2023","url":"https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp/datasets/2023/cbp23co.zip","note":"cbpYYco.txt: fipstate 06, fipscty 007; naics ------ for the total, NN---- for sectors; est and the size classes n<5 (n1_4 before 2017) … n1000"},{"name":"BLS CPI-U all items, U.S. city average (CUUR0000SA0, 1982–84 = 100), via the public API v1","url":"https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/","note":"monthly, not seasonally adjusted; used only to deflate sales"},{"name":"BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics — Chico, CA metropolitan area unemployment rate (LAUMT061702000000003)","url":"https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/","note":"monthly, not seasonally adjusted; the MSA is Butte County"},{"name":"CDTFA open data — taxable sales by city, quarterly (Chico, Paradise, Oroville)","url":"https://cdtfa.ca.gov/dataportal/api/odata/Taxable_Sales_by_City?$filter=City%20eq%20%27Chico%27","note":"CalendarYear, Quarter, RetailandFoodServicesTaxableTransactions, TotalAllOutletsTaxableTransactions"},{"name":"CDTFA open data — taxable sales by county and business group, Butte, total retail and food services (CTR)","url":"https://cdtfa.ca.gov/dataportal/api/odata/Taxable_Sales_Counties?$filter=County%20eq%20%27BUTTE%27%20and%20BusinessGroupCode%20eq%20%27CTR%27","note":"CalendarYear, Quarter, BusinessGroupCode CTR, TaxableTransactions; 2015 onward"},{"name":"CDTFA open data — local tax distributions by city and county, Chico","url":"https://cdtfa.ca.gov/dataportal/api/odata/Local_Tax_Distributions_by_City_County?$filter=Jurisdiction%20eq%20%27Chico%27","note":"FiscalYearFrom, FiscalYearTo, RevenueDistributed: the Bradley-Burns 1 % local tax remitted to the city"},{"name":"EDD WARN reports — fiscal years 2015–16 to 2025–26 (PDF) and the current year (xlsx)","url":"https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/jobs_and_training/warn/warn_report1.xlsx","note":"Notice Date, Received/Processed Date, Effective Date, Company, City or Address, County, No. Of Employees, Layoff/Closure; Butte County rows only"}],"method":"Private employment is the mean of the three monthly counts in each quarter's QCEW county file (own_code 5, agglvl 71). The comparators are California counties of 150,000–350,000 residents (Census vintage 2024) outside the Los Angeles, San Francisco–Oakland, San Jose and San Diego combined statistical areas: El Dorado, Imperial, Kings, Madera, San Luis Obispo, Shasta and Yolo. Each county's log employment is indexed to 2018-Q3; the control is the comparators' mean; the deviation is Butte less the control, a difference-in-differences in which the season and every common movement cancel. The Camp Fire response is that deviation from 2018-Q4 to 2020-Q1 and the pandemic response the deviation re-indexed to 2020-Q1 over the 6 quarters from 2020-Q2, a window as long as the fire's; from each peak, dev(t) = A·exp(−t/τ) + C is fitted by grid search over τ (241 values from 0.25 to 64 quarters, A and C by least squares at each), with a 200-draw residual bootstrap for the interval and the model-free half-life beside it; τ is printed only where n ≥ 5 and r² ≥ 0.5. The placebo places the shock at every quarter from 2015-Q1 whose 6-quarter window ends by 2018-Q3 and ranks the fire's peak deviation among them. The same fit gives τ in months for the unemployment rate's excess over its 2019 mean, from the peak month through December 2022 — a fixed three-year span from March 2020, the month the shock began, chosen by the calendar rather than by where the excess crosses zero (2020-04–2022-12, n = 33) — and in quarters for Chico's seasonally adjusted real retail-sales excess over the four quarters before 2018-Q4. Sectors are the NAICS sectors of the annual private rows (agglvl 74, unclassified excluded); the location quotient is the BLS's against the United States private total and is listed only for sectors of 1,000 or more; the Shannon entropy is over the ten private supersectors (agglvl 73) and the Herfindahl index over the sectors, withheld cells imputed from the private total in proportion to establishments; the dependency ratio is private NAICS 62 with state and local government (own_code 2 and 3) over the county total (agglvl 70). Establishment sizes are County Business Patterns' size classes for 2023: the count at or above each class's lower bound is regressed on the bound on log₁₀ axes for classes of 10 and up, with the slope's standard error. Sales are deflated by the quarter's mean CPI-U (CUUR0000SA0) to 2026-Q2 dollars, seasonally adjusted by ratio-to-moving-average factors estimated on 2009–2017, and compared same quarter a year apart; the conservation check sets Chico's, Paradise's and Oroville's real change between 2018-Q3 and 2019-Q3 against the county's. WARN rows are the state's fiscal-year reports (PDF, read with pdftotext) and the current-year spreadsheet, Butte County rows, duplicates across files dropped.","reading":["The employment, establishment, WARN and unemployment series in this chapter are Butte County's — the Chico metropolitan area is the county — so they net Paradise's losses against Chico's gains; only the taxable-sales and Bradley-Burns series are the cities'. Butte's private employment averaged 61,563 in 2026-Q1, −15.3% against the path of 7 comparator counties chosen by rule (El Dorado, Imperial, Kings, Madera, San Luis Obispo, Shasta and Yolo: California counties of 150,000–350,000 residents (Census vintage 2024) outside the Los Angeles, San Francisco–Oakland, San Jose and San Diego combined statistical areas), both in logs and indexed to 2018-Q3. After the Camp Fire (8 November 2018) that difference-in-differences deviation widened through every quarter of the window to −6.5%, −4,519 jobs against the counterfactual, in 2020-Q1, the last quarter before the pandemic, and had not begun to return, so no relaxation time is printed for the fire. Placing the shock instead at each of 10 quarters from 2015-Q1, the 2018-Q4 peak ranks 1st of 11 (permutation p = 0.09); the mean absolute deviation over the pre-fire quarters was 1.90%. Over 2014-Q1–2018-Q3 the deviation rose 0.21 ± 0.03 points a quarter (n = 19, r² = 0.68), so a difference-in-differences that carries the paths forward parallel understates the fire's deviation.","In the pandemic quarter Butte's own private employment fell 12.0% from 2020-Q1 and the comparators' mean fell 10.1%, so most of that shock was common to every county. Against the comparators, re-indexed to 2020-Q1 and read over the 6 quarters to 2021-Q3 (a window as long as the fire's), the deviation reached −2.7%, −1,746 jobs against the counterfactual, in 2021-Q3 and was still widening at the window's end, so no relaxation time is printed for the pandemic. Over the 24 quarters from 2020-Q2 to 2026-Q1 the two paths have parted at −1.52 ± 0.10 points a year (least squares on the deviation, r² = 0.92), to −15.3% in 2026-Q1. Both pulses are read at quarterly resolution, so nothing faster than a quarter can be seen. The area's unemployment rate, monthly, gives the same shock at finer grain: from a 2019 mean of 5.2% it reached 16.4% in April 2020 and the excess decayed with τ = 9.2 months, 95 % bootstrap interval 7.3–12.4 months (n = 33, r² = 0.92), half-life 4 months; the latest rate is 5.9% in September 2026, not seasonally adjusted.","Among the 14 private sectors with at least 1,000 county jobs, the location quotient against the United States private total (2025) is highest for Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (4.41), Health care and social assistance (1.63) and Other services (except public administration) (1.53) and lowest for Transportation and warehousing (0.35), Professional, scientific, and technical services (0.39) and Finance and insurance (0.41). Private employment went from 62,116 in 2014 to 62,412 in 2025; of those sectors Transportation and warehousing grew most (+33.9%) and Professional, scientific, and technical services least (−21.7%). The Shannon entropy of private employment across the 10 supersectors (10 disclosed) is 1.97 nats, 0.85 of the maximum ln 10, 4th of 8 among Butte and the comparators (San Luis Obispo 2.06, El Dorado 2.03, Yolo 2.00, Butte 1.97, Shasta 1.97, Madera 1.92, Kings 1.92 and Imperial 1.88); in 2014 it was 2.02. The Herfindahl index over the 19 sectors is 0.144, 1st of 8 counting from the most concentrated. Private health care with state and local government together hold 43.9% of all Butte jobs (39.6% in 2014), 1st of 8 counting from the most dependent, a place shared with Imperial. Entropy is the variety the related-variety literature (Frenken, Van Oort and Verburg 2007) associates with resilience; it is reported here as a measure and no more.","County Business Patterns counted 4,494 establishments in Butte County in 1998 and 4,677 in 2023, +0.16% a year compounded; since 2020 the count moved +0.22% a year while the county's population moved −0.23% a year (July 2020 to July 2024, Census estimates). The net change was −133 establishments in 2019, the year after the fire, and +9 in 2020. For size classes of 10 employees and up (the 1–4 class is censored), the number of establishments at or above each class's lower bound falls with the bound on log–log axes with slope −1.35 ± 0.03 (n = 7, r² = 0.998); Axtell (2001) found −1 for United States firms, and the comparison is descriptive, since these are establishments in one county and multi-site firms are cut at its line.","Retail and food-service taxable sales in the city of Chico were $429.4 million in 2026-Q2, in that quarter's dollars (CPI-U, CUUR0000SA0), $1,728.0 million over the latest four quarters. The fire quarter 2018-Q4 was +11.1% against 2017-Q4 in real terms and, seasonally adjusted with factors from 2009–2017, +9.2% against the four quarters before it; the excess peaked at +12.2% in 2019-Q2 and stood at −5.6% in 2020-Q1 without a fitted decay. Between 2018-Q3 and 2019-Q3, real retail sales changed by +$38.6 million in Chico, −$34.7 million in Paradise and +$20.0 million in Oroville, +$24.0 million together, while Butte County's changed by +$46.9 million; +$22.9 million of the county's change fell outside the three cities. The state remitted $27,284,797 of Bradley-Burns local sales tax (the 1 % share) to the city in fiscal year 2024–25; a district tax that was on the November 2022 ballot (Measure H) is not measured by this study, and the CDTFA series here is the Bradley-Burns one percent only.","Under the WARN Act, covered employers (75 or more employees in California's act) filed 52 notices for Butte County sites between 2015-07-10 and 2026-07-10, naming 5,098 positions; 56% of the notices were closures rather than layoffs, 69% named a Chico site and 12% a Paradise site. The year 2020 alone holds 11 notices and 1,632 positions, 5 of them marked temporary; without 2020 the record is 41 notices and 3,466 positions. A notice counts positions an employer announced, not separations that occurred."],"limits":["Employment, sectors, establishments, WARN notices and the unemployment rate are Butte County or Chico-metropolitan-area figures (the MSA is the county), so Paradise's losses and Chico's gains net within them; only taxable sales and the Bradley-Burns distribution are the cities' own.","The difference-in-differences assumes Butte would have followed the comparators' mean path but for the shock; the comparators were chosen by a population rule, not for likeness, and each had its own events; the fire window closes at 2020-Q1 because the pandemic follows and the pandemic window is 6 quarters by the same measure, so the three-parameter fit has only the run from each peak to work with (1 quarter for the fire, 1 quarter for the pandemic), and Butte was already converging on the comparators before the fire (mean absolute deviation 1.9% over 18 quarters).","QCEW withholds a cell that would identify an employer, as the Confidential Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act requires (44 U.S.C. § 3561 et seq.); in 2025 0 of Butte's 10 supersector cells and 0 of its 19 sector cells are withheld, and 9 of the comparators' 70 supersector cells; a withheld cell is imputed from the private total in proportion to establishments, so the entropy and concentration are estimates and the smallest counties are affected most.","The sales base changed inside the fire window: the Wayfair rules for out-of-state sellers took effect in April 2019 (AB 147) and marketplace facilitators began collecting in October 2019, so part of any change after 2018-Q4 is the tax base, not trade; Chico's, Paradise's and Oroville's sales are compared with the county's on the same real basis but cannot say whose shoppers moved.","WARN covers employers of 75 or more and only the notices they filed, with the headcount they announced rather than separations that occurred; March–June 2020 holds pandemic furloughs marked temporary, so 2020 is shown on its own.","The Bradley-Burns distribution series moves −1.9% in fiscal year 2022–23 and −8.0% in fiscal year 2023–24, within the range of earlier years (27.6% at most), consistent with the Bradley-Burns one percent alone; a district tax that was on the November 2022 ballot (Measure H) is not measured by this study.","The County Business Patterns file for 2024 was not read this run; the establishment series has 26 years."],"figures":[{"id":"employment","type":"line","title":"Private employment by quarter against the comparator path","caption":"Butte County private employment (the mean of each quarter's three months) and the counterfactual: Butte's 2018-Q3 level carried along the mean log path of 7 comparator counties.","series":["employment"],"opts":{"x":"month","y":["private","counterfactual"],"xType":"month","yLabel":"private jobs","marks":[{"x":"2018-10","label":"Camp Fire, 2018-Q4"},{"x":"2020-04","label":"pandemic, 2020-Q2"}],"names":{"private":"Butte County private employment","counterfactual":"comparator path"}}},{"id":"deviation","type":"line","title":"Deviation from the comparator path: the impulse response","caption":"Butte's log employment less the comparators' mean, both indexed to 2018-Q3, in log points (×100); the reading converts each figure to per cent. The two shocks and what followed.","series":["employment"],"opts":{"x":"month","y":"deviation","xType":"month","yLabel":"deviation, log points (×100)","marks":[{"x":"2018-10","label":"Camp Fire, 2018-Q4"},{"x":"2020-04","label":"pandemic, 2020-Q2"}],"names":{"deviation":"deviation, log points (×100)"}}},{"id":"sectors","type":"bars","title":"Location quotient by sector, 2025","caption":"Each private sector's share of county employment over its share of United States private employment; 1 is the national mix. Sectors are ordered by quotient; withheld cells are blank.","series":["sectors"],"opts":{"x":"sector","y":"lq","yLabel":"location quotient","names":{"lq":"location quotient"}}},{"id":"entropy","type":"bars","title":"Entropy of employment across supersectors, 2025","caption":"Shannon entropy in nats of private employment across the ten supersectors, Butte and the comparator counties, most varied first.","series":["entropy"],"opts":{"x":"name","y":"entropy","yLabel":"entropy (nats)","names":{"entropy":"entropy"}}},{"id":"dependency","type":"bars","title":"Jobs in health care and government, 2025","caption":"Private health care and social assistance, state government and local government together, as a share of all jobs in the county.","series":["dependency"],"opts":{"x":"name","y":"dependency","yLabel":"share of all jobs","names":{"dependency":"dependency ratio"}}},{"id":"sizes","type":"scatter","title":"Establishments by size, 2023","caption":"Establishments with at least the size class's lower bound of employees, against that bound, on log–log axes; the line is fitted to classes of 10 and up.","series":["sizes"],"opts":{"x":"lower","y":"cumulative","label":"bin","logX":true,"logY":true,"fit":{"a":4.525,"b":-1.353,"space":"log"},"xLabel":"employees (lower bound of size class)","yLabel":"establishments of that size or larger"}},{"id":"estabs","type":"line","title":"Establishments in Butte County since 1998","caption":"County Business Patterns establishment count by year.","series":["estabs"],"opts":{"x":"year","y":"est","xType":"year","yLabel":"establishments","marks":[{"x":2018,"label":"Camp Fire"},{"x":2020,"label":"pandemic"}]}},{"id":"sales","type":"line","title":"Real retail taxable sales in Chico, by quarter","caption":"Retail and food-service taxable transactions in 2026-Q2 dollars, as reported and seasonally adjusted with factors from 2009–2017.","series":["sales"],"opts":{"x":"month","y":["retailReal","retailSa"],"xType":"month","yLabel":"dollars (2026-Q2)","marks":[{"x":"2018-10","label":"Camp Fire, 2018-Q4"},{"x":"2020-04","label":"pandemic, 2020-Q2"}],"names":{"retailReal":"real retail sales","retailSa":"seasonally adjusted"}}},{"id":"salesShift","type":"table","title":"Real retail sales, 2018-Q3 to 2019-Q3, city by city","caption":"The same quarter a year apart, in the same dollars, for the county's three largest cities and the county.","series":["salesShift"],"opts":{"columns":[{"key":"place","label":"Place","fmt":"text"},{"key":"q2018","label":"2018-Q3","fmt":"usd"},{"key":"q2019","label":"2019-Q3","fmt":"usd"},{"key":"delta","label":"Change","fmt":"usd"},{"key":"deltaPct","label":"Change %","fmt":"pct"}]}},{"id":"revenue","type":"line","title":"Bradley-Burns 1 % remitted to the city, by fiscal year","caption":"The local share of the sales and use tax the state distributes to Chico.","series":["revenue"],"opts":{"x":"fyStart","y":"revenue","xType":"year","yLabel":"dollars","fromZero":true,"names":{"revenue":"Bradley-Burns distribution"}}},{"id":"unemployment","type":"line","title":"Unemployment rate, Chico metropolitan area","caption":"Monthly, not seasonally adjusted.","series":["unemployment"],"opts":{"x":"month","y":"rate","xType":"month","yLabel":"per cent of the labour force","marks":[{"x":"2018-11","label":"Camp Fire"},{"x":"2020-04","label":"pandemic"}],"names":{"rate":"unemployment rate"}}},{"id":"warnYears","type":"bars","title":"WARN notices for Butte County sites, by year","caption":"Positions named in notices each calendar year; 2020 holds the pandemic furloughs.","series":["warnYears"],"opts":{"x":"year","y":"employees","xType":"year","yLabel":"positions named","names":{"employees":"positions"}}},{"id":"warn","type":"table","title":"WARN notices for Butte County sites","caption":"Every notice the state lists for a Butte County site, newest first.","series":["warn"],"opts":{"columns":[{"key":"date","label":"Notice date","fmt":"date"},{"key":"company","label":"Employer","fmt":"text"},{"key":"city","label":"City","fmt":"text"},{"key":"employees","label":"Positions","fmt":"num"},{"key":"type","label":"Type","fmt":"text"}],"sort":"date","limit":60}}],"taus":[{"label":"Unemployment rate after its pandemic peak","seconds":24166775,"lo":19181182,"hi":32633604,"kind":"relaxation","range":"ci","note":"τ = 9.2 months (95 % bootstrap interval 7.3–12.4), n = 33, r² = 0.92"}],"laws":["warn","bradley-burns","transactions-use-tax","omb-msa","cipsea"],"fetched_at":"2026-11-02T03:22:44.155Z"}