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Each well's value for a year is the median of its March–May readings when it has any — spring, when the table is highest and pumping lightest — and otherwise of all its readings that year; the basin's yearly figure is the median across a fixed panel of 40 wells, those with a value in at least seven of every ten years of 2005–2025, so that the roster changing does not read as the water moving (across every qualifying well the trend would read 1.11 ft a year), for years with at least 5. The trend is the Theil–Sen slope (the median of pairwise slopes) of those yearly medians over 2005–2025; each well's own trend is the same fit over its readings since 2000. The 2042 figure carries the current rate forward from the latest median to the statute's horizon, twenty years from the 2022 plan, with the slope's 95 % bootstrap range over years — a projection under one assumption, not a forecast; the Vina GSA's sustainability plan, not this line, governs what the subbasin is managed toward. The coupling to rain is the least-squares slope of each year's change in the median on the water-year precipitation anomaly at Orland (the climate chapter's gauge), at lags of zero to three years since 1990.","fetched_at":"2026-11-02T06:34:12.082Z"}