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"mod":52,"above":439,"adu":61},{"year":2021,"permitted":807,"completed":575,"vlow":271,"low":51,"mod":169,"above":316,"adu":58},{"year":2022,"permitted":821,"completed":813,"vlow":317,"low":207,"mod":36,"above":261,"adu":45},{"year":2023,"permitted":225,"completed":623,"vlow":37,"low":0,"mod":5,"above":183,"adu":36},{"year":2024,"permitted":298,"completed":635,"vlow":118,"low":25,"mod":78,"above":77,"adu":46},{"year":2025,"permitted":244,"completed":343,"vlow":122,"low":0,"mod":37,"above":85,"adu":33}],"enrollment":[{"year":1990,"headcount":16633},{"year":1991,"headcount":15669},{"year":1992,"headcount":15164},{"year":1993,"headcount":14706},{"year":1994,"headcount":14232},{"year":1995,"headcount":13798},{"year":1996,"headcount":13919},{"year":1997,"headcount":14247},{"year":1998,"headcount":14983},{"year":1999,"headcount":15261},{"year":2000,"headcount":15912},{"year":2001,"headcount":16704},{"year":2002,"headcount":16246},{"year":2003,"headcount":15516},{"year":2004,"headcount":15734},{"year":2005,"headcount":15919},{"year":2006,"headcount":16250},{"year":2007,"headcount":17034},{"year":2008,"headcount":17132},{"year":2009,"headcount":16934},{"year":2010,"headcount":15989},{"year":2011,"headcount":15920},{"year":2012,"headcount":16470},{"year":2013,"headcount":16356},{"year":2014,"headcount":17287},{"year":2015,"headcount":17220},{"year":2016,"headcount":17557},{"year":2017,"headcount":17875},{"year":2018,"headcount":17578},{"year":2019,"headcount":17110},{"year":2020,"headcount":16746},{"year":2021,"headcount":15702},{"year":2022,"headcount":14183},{"year":2023,"headcount":14523},{"year":2024,"headcount":15257}],"wage":[{"year":2015,"weeklyWage":713,"rent":990.1,"rentShare":32},{"year":2016,"weeklyWage":726,"rent":1033.2,"rentShare":32.8},{"year":2017,"weeklyWage":756,"rent":1082.8,"rentShare":33.1},{"year":2018,"weeklyWage":788,"rent":1126.7,"rentShare":33},{"year":2019,"weeklyWage":831,"rent":1236.5,"rentShare":34.3},{"year":2020,"weeklyWage":904,"rent":1269.9,"rentShare":32.4},{"year":2021,"weeklyWage":947,"rent":1345.1,"rentShare":32.8},{"year":2022,"weeklyWage":976,"rent":1430.1,"rentShare":33.8},{"year":2023,"weeklyWage":1019,"rent":1458.7,"rentShare":33},{"year":2024,"weeklyWage":1062,"rent":1495.2,"rentShare":32.5},{"year":2025,"weeklyWage":1106,"rent":1530.7,"rentShare":31.9}]},"figures":[{"id":"rent","type":"line","title":"Rent indexed to October 2018: Chico, its synthetic control, the nation","caption":"ZORI for each city divided by its October 2018 value; the control is the donors' weighted mean (Livermore (32 %), Chino (23 %), Temecula (18 %), San Ramon (13 %), Brentwood (11 %) and Merced (4 %)).","series":["rent"],"opts":{"x":"month","y":["chico","control","us"],"xType":"month","yLabel":"rent index, October 2018 = 100","marks":[{"x":"2018-11","label":"Camp Fire"},{"x":"2020-03","label":"pandemic"}],"names":{"chico":"Chico","control":"synthetic control","us":"United States"}}},{"id":"excess","type":"line","title":"Chico's excess over its synthetic control, and the fit from the peak","caption":"Chico's index minus the control, in points; the fitted curve is A·exp(−t/τ) + C from the July 2019 peak to February 2020, τ no longer than the index's smoothing window (three months).","series":["rent"],"opts":{"x":"month","y":["excess","fit"],"xType":"month","yLabel":"excess, points of the October 2018 level","marks":[{"x":"2018-11","label":"Camp Fire"},{"x":"2019-07","label":"peak"},{"x":"2020-03","label":"pandemic"}],"names":{"excess":"excess","fit":"exponential + plateau"}}},{"id":"placebos","type":"bars","title":"Peak excess when each donor is treated in turn","caption":"Every unit's largest excess over its own synthetic in November 2018–February 2020; Chico is marked.","series":["placebos"],"opts":{"x":"city","y":"peakExcessPct","xType":"category","yLabel":"peak excess, points","mark":"Chico"}},{"id":"placeboTime","type":"line","title":"12-month-forward excess at every candidate shock month","caption":"The estimator re-run with each month as the shock and its own pre-period; the value for November 2018 is +9.3.","series":["placeboTime"],"opts":{"x":"month","y":"excess12","xType":"month","yLabel":"excess after 12 months, points"}},{"id":"permits","type":"line","title":"Housing units permitted per 1,000 residents","caption":"Census Building Permits Survey units authorised in Chico each year over the interpolated population; permits, not completions.","series":["permits"],"opts":{"x":"year","y":"perK","xType":"year","yLabel":"units per 1,000 residents","fromZero":true,"marks":[{"x":2018,"label":"Camp Fire"}]}},{"id":"apr","type":"bars","title":"Units permitted by income band, from the city's progress reports","caption":"HCD annual progress report Table A2: building permits issued each year by the household income the unit is deed-restricted or counted for.","series":["apr"],"opts":{"x":"year","y":["vlow","low","mod","above"],"stacked":true,"xType":"year","yLabel":"units permitted","names":{"vlow":"very low income","low":"low income","mod":"moderate income","above":"above moderate"}}},{"id":"enrollment","type":"line","title":"Chico State fall headcount","caption":"IPEDS total fall enrollment, all students.","series":["enrollment"],"opts":{"x":"year","y":"headcount","xType":"year","yLabel":"students","fromZero":true,"marks":[{"x":2017,"label":"peak"}]}},{"id":"wage","type":"line","title":"Rent as a share of the county's mean private paycheck","caption":"Chico's annual mean ZORI over Butte County's mean private-sector weekly wage × 52/12 — a city asking rent against a county mean wage.","series":["wage"],"opts":{"x":"year","y":"rentShare","xType":"year","yLabel":"% of the monthly wage","fromZero":true}}],"reading":["Indexed to October 2018 (= 100), Chico's ZORI reached +10.9 points against its synthetic control in July 2019, 9 months after the Camp Fire of 8 November 2018; 12 months after the fire (November 2019) the excess was +9.3 points. The control is a weighted mean of the 25 donor cities that pass the rule, 6 of them carrying weight: Livermore (32 %), Chino (23 %), Temecula (18 %), San Ramon (13 %), Brentwood (11 %) and Merced (4 %). Over January 2016–October 2018, before the shock, the synthetic tracked Chico with a root-mean-square gap of 0.83 points (mean absolute gap 0.65).","Treating each donor in turn as if it had been shocked and building its synthetic from the others, Chico's peak excess over November 2018–February 2020 ranks 1 of 26 units (permutation p = 0.04); its ratio of post- to pre-period root-mean-square gap, 9.6, ranks 1 of 26. Over the 24 candidate shock months June 2016–June 2018, each re-estimated with its own pre-period, the 12-month-forward excess for November 2018 ranks 1 of 25; 8 of those candidate windows reach past the fire.","From the peak to February 2020, the month before the pandemic reached every city, the excess fits A·exp(−t/τ) + C with τ no longer than the index's smoothing window (three months) — the fitted value falls inside the window over which Zillow smooths the index and is not resolvable, so only the bound is reported, settling toward a plateau of +8.3 points (r² = 0.72, n = 8). In September 2026 the excess was −0.6 points: Chico's index stood at 139.3 against the control's 140.0, a ZORI of $1,561 a month against $1,120 in October 2018.","In 2025 the mean ZORI for Chico was $1,531 a month, 31.9 % of Butte County's average private-sector weekly wage of $1,106 taken over a month (× 52/12); in 2015 the share was 32.0 %. This sets a city asking rent against a county mean wage, which high earners pull upward; rent against median household income is the standard measure and is not computed here.","The Building Permits Survey records 225 housing units authorised in Chico in 2025, 2.2 per 1,000 residents; the mean over 2021–2025 is 4.4 per 1,000 against a peak of 25.6 in 1990. Units in buildings of five or more were 61.5 % of the units permitted over those 5 years. Permits are units authorised, not units completed. The housing statutes the frame cites (SB 330, SB 9, the ADU law) are coincident in time with the permit series and are not tested here. The city's annual progress reports to HCD list 4,057 units permitted over 2018–2025 and 4,448 completed; 28.5 % of the permitted units were for very-low- or low-income households and 7.6 % were accessory dwelling units. Against the sixth-cycle RHNA of 3,488 units for 06/15/2022 - 06/15/2030, 1,587 units (45.5 %) had been credited, 826 of the 1,608 very-low- and low-income units.","Chico State's fall headcount peaked at 17,875 in 2017 and was 15,257 in 2024, 14.6 % lower. Its bearing on rent is not separable from the fire in this record."],"limits":["ZORI is Zillow's smoothed index of asking rents on the homes listed on Zillow, not the rent paid across the whole stock; past months are revised as listings arrive, so a stored result can differ from a later pull.","Penal Code §396 capped rent increases at 10 % above the pre-emergency rent for the duration of the emergency proclaimed for the fire, and AB 1482 (Civil Code §1947.12) capped annual increases statewide from January 2020, so the asking rents in the window are censored from above.","The control is a synthetic Chico built from 25 donors chosen by rule (California cities of 40–120 thousand people at least 150 km from Chico, in a county under no federal fire major-disaster declaration dated 2017–2019, with ZORI reported every month from 2016-01); 207 California cities with ZORI rows fell outside the population band, 10 were within 150 km, 68 sat in a fire-declaration county (dockets FEMA-4344-DR, FEMA-4353-DR, FEMA-4382-DR, FEMA-4407-DR) and 44 lacked full data. The design supports an excess relative to the synthetic after the shock; it does not apportion the excess among the fire, enrollment and the pandemic, and the in-space placebo rank is the measure of how unusual Chico's excess is among untreated cities.","The rent is the City of Chico's and the wage is Butte County's mean private-sector weekly wage, which high earners pull upward; rent against median household income is the standard quantity and needs a Census API key, so it is not computed here.","Permits are units authorised, not units built: a permitted unit may be completed years later or never, and the progress reports' completions are the certificates of occupancy the city reported.","The population the study stores begins with the 2020 census, so the displacement from Paradise is not measured here; permits per resident interpolate the decennial counts and the 2024 estimate.","The pre-period fit is in-sample — 25 donor weights fitted to 34 months — so the pre-period root-mean-square gap of 0.83 points understates the out-of-sample error of the synthetic.","Sources that did not answer on this run, left as gaps: no Chico row in the 1984 permits file."],"taus":[{"label":"rent excess after the Camp Fire","seconds":7889238,"lo":null,"hi":7889238,"kind":"relaxation","range":"bound","note":"an upper bound: the fitted τ (0.8 months, bootstrap 0.5–3.3) is shorter than the index's smoothing window (three months), over 8 months from the July 2019 peak to February 2020, r² = 0.72"}],"laws":["housing-element","rhna","sb330","sb9","adu","stafford","penal-396","ab1482"],"sources":[{"name":"Zillow Research — Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes, by city","url":"https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zori/City_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_month.csv","note":"RegionName, CountyName and the monthly columns 2015-01 to 2026-09 for Chico and every California city (StateName CA)"},{"name":"Zillow Research — ZORI by metro, with the United States row","url":"https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zori/Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_month.csv","note":"the \"United States\" row, indexed the same way"},{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — 2024 Gazetteer, places, California","url":"https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_gaz_place_06.txt","note":"NAME, INTPTLAT, INTPTLONG: the interior point of each place, for the distance rule"},{"name":"Federal Register — FEMA notices of major disaster declarations for California and their amendments","url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/api/v1/documents.json?conditions[agencies][]=federal-emergency-management-agency&conditions[term]=%22California%3B+Major+Disaster%22&conditions[publication_date][gte]=2017-01-01","note":"docket FEMA-NNNN-DR, the declaration date, the incident clause and the counties designated as adversely affected; fire dockets dated 2017-01-01–2019-12-31: FEMA-4344-DR, FEMA-4353-DR, FEMA-4382-DR, FEMA-4407-DR"},{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — Building Permits Survey, annual place files, West Region","url":"https://www2.census.gov/econ/bps/Place/West%20Region/we1980a.txt","note":"we{yyyy}a.txt for 1980–2025: state 06, county 007, place name CHICO (FIPS place 13014 from 1999); units in 1, 2, 3–4 and 5+ unit buildings; valuation not read"},{"name":"California HCD — Housing Element Annual Progress Report, Table A2 (data.ca.gov datastore)","url":"https://data.ca.gov/dataset/housing-element-annual-progress-report-apr-data-by-jurisdiction-and-year/resource/fe505d9b-8c36-42ba-ba30-08bc4f34e022","note":"JURIS_NAME CHICO; BP_* units permitted and CO_* units completed by income band, UNIT_CAT for accessory dwelling units"},{"name":"California HCD — RHNA Progress Report, sixth cycle (data.ca.gov datastore)","url":"https://data.ca.gov/dataset/rhna-progress-report/resource/1e80a9cf-724c-432d-8374-e9708a6a92dc","note":"Jurisdiction CHICO: RHNA VLI/LI/MOD/ABOVE MOD and the units credited to each"},{"name":"IPEDS fall enrollment via the Urban Institute Education Data Portal","url":"https://educationdata.urban.org/api/v1/college-university/ipeds/fall-enrollment/1990/99/?unitid=110538&sex=99&race=99&ftpt=99","note":"unitid 110538 (California State University-Chico), enrollment_fall, the single all-students row (ftpt 99, level 99), 1990–2025"},{"name":"BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages — Butte County annual files","url":"https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2015/a/area/06007.csv","note":"own_code 5 (private), agglvl_code 71 (county total by ownership), annual_avg_wkly_wage"},{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — decennial census counts for Chico city, 1980–2020","url":"https://data.census.gov/table?q=Chico%20city,%20California&t=Populations%20and%20People","note":"1980: 26,603, 1990: 40,079, 2000: 59,954, 2010: 86,187, 2020: 101,475; the 2024 point is the cities study's estimate"},{"name":"Abadie, A., Diamond, A. & Hainmueller, J. (2010) \"Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies\", Journal of the American Statistical Association 105(490):493","url":"https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746"}],"method":"Rent is Zillow's Observed Rent Index (smoothed asking rents, all home types, city level, monthly from January 2015). Each city's index is its ZORI divided by its October 2018 value, the last full month before the Camp Fire. The control is a synthetic control in the sense of Abadie, Diamond and Hainmueller: non-negative weights summing to one over a donor pool, fitted by projected gradient descent to minimise the squared gap to Chico's index over January 2016–October 2018; Chico's excess is its index minus the weighted donors' index, in points of the pre-fire level, the weights renormalised over the donors reporting a month. Donors are chosen by the rule \"California cities of 40–120 thousand people at least 150 km from Chico, in a county under no federal fire major-disaster declaration dated 2017–2019, with ZORI reported every month from 2016-01\" — populations from the cities study, distance by great circle from the Census gazetteer's interior points, fire counties from the Federal Register's FEMA notices (the declarations naming a fire, dated 2017-01-01 to 2019-12-31, and every county their amendments add) — giving 25 donors: Antioch, Apple Valley, Brentwood, Chino, Chino Hills, Eastvale, Hemet, Lake Elsinore, Livermore, Menifee, Merced, Mountain View, Murrieta, Palm Desert, Palm Springs, Palo Alto, Pittsburg, Redlands, Redwood City, San Mateo, San Ramon, Temecula, Tracy, Upland and Walnut Creek. The peak is the largest excess from November 2018 to February 2020, the month before the pandemic reached every city; the relaxation time is the least-squares fit of A·exp(−t/τ) + C over that window by a grid on τ, its interval the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of a 200-draw residual bootstrap, and τ is reported only with n ≥ 8 and r² ≥ 0.5. Inference is by in-space placebos — each donor treated in turn with a synthetic built from the rest, Chico's peak excess and post-to-pre RMSPE ratio ranked among all units — and a placebo in time, the estimator re-run at each candidate shock month June 2016–June 2018 with its own pre-period and the excess 12 months forward ranked. Rent as a share of the paycheck is the calendar-year mean ZORI over Butte County's mean private-sector weekly wage × 52/12 from the QCEW annual file. Permits are the Building Permits Survey's units authorised in Chico each year from 1980, per 1,000 residents on a population interpolated linearly between the decennial census counts and the 2024 estimate; the five-year figures cover the latest 5 reported years. The income-band mix sums the BP_ columns of the city's annual progress reports to HCD by year, the very-low band including the acutely- and extremely-low columns, and completions sum the CO_ columns; RHNA progress is the state's own progress report for the sixth cycle. Enrollment is IPEDS fall headcount, one total row per year; its peak year is computed from the record.","fetched_at":"2026-11-02T03:23:46.828Z"}