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Chico Creek, hourly, last 120 days","caption":"DWR gauge at the head of Bidwell Park (CDEC BIC), cubic feet per second.","series":["flowRecent"],"opts":{"x":"t","y":"cfs","xType":"date","yLabel":"cfs","fromZero":true}},{"id":"rain","type":"bars","title":"Rain at the airport, hourly, last 120 days","caption":"ASOS one-hour precipitation at CIC, inches; hours the archive lacks are blank.","series":["flowRecent"],"opts":{"x":"t","y":"rainIn","xType":"date","yLabel":"in"}},{"id":"storms","type":"table","title":"Storms and the creek's answer","caption":"Every run of rain of at least 0.5 in in the window: total, the hour of heaviest rain, the creek's peak and its lag, and gauge runoff over airport rainfall.","series":["storms"],"opts":{"columns":[{"key":"start","label":"Start","fmt":"text"},{"key":"rainIn","label":"Rain (in)","fmt":"num"},{"key":"peakRainHour","label":"Heaviest hour","fmt":"text"},{"key":"peakFlowHour","label":"Creek peak","fmt":"text"},{"key":"peakCfs","label":"Peak (cfs)","fmt":"num"},{"key":"baseCfs","label":"Base (cfs)","fmt":"num"},{"key":"lagHours","label":"Lag (h)","fmt":"num"},{"key":"runoffRatio","label":"Runoff ÷ rain","fmt":"num"},{"key":"resolution","label":"Resolution","fmt":"text"}],"sort":"start"}},{"id":"recession","type":"table","title":"Recession after the largest peaks","caption":"ln Q against days 3–20 after each peak: τ = 1/k, the fit's r², and the Brutsaert–Nieber slope (1 for a linear reservoir).","series":["recession"],"opts":{"columns":[{"key":"peakDate","label":"Peak","fmt":"date"},{"key":"peakCfs","label":"cfs","fmt":"num"},{"key":"tauDays","label":"τ (days)","fmt":"num"},{"key":"r2","label":"r²","fmt":"num"},{"key":"bnSlope","label":"B–N slope","fmt":"num"},{"key":"source","label":"Record","fmt":"text"}],"sort":"peakDate"}},{"id":"peaks","type":"scatter","title":"Annual peaks against their return period","caption":"USGS instantaneous peaks at Gringorten plotting positions, both axes logarithmic; the Gumbel curve is the next figure.","series":["peaks"],"opts":{"x":"returnPeriod","y":"cfs","label":"waterYear","logX":true,"logY":true,"xLabel":"return period (years)","yLabel":"cfs"}},{"id":"frequency","type":"line","title":"Flood frequency, Gumbel by moments","caption":"The T-year flow and its standard error (Kite 1977), fitted to the USGS peaks of 1931–1997 only.","series":["frequency"],"opts":{"x":"returnPeriod","y":"gumbel","xType":"number","yLabel":"cfs","log":true,"fromZero":true}},{"id":"smokeYears","type":"line","title":"Days a year above 35 µg/m³ PM2.5","caption":"Daily means at Chico's monitor above the 24-hour standard; the mark is the Camp Fire.","series":["smokeYears"],"opts":{"x":"year","y":["days35","days55"],"xType":"year","yLabel":"days","fromZero":true,"marks":[{"x":2018,"label":"Camp Fire"}],"names":{"days35":"> 35","days55":"> 55.4"}}},{"id":"campFire","type":"line","title":"The Camp Fire fortnight","caption":"Daily mean PM2.5 at East Avenue, 2018-11-08 to 2018-11-22.","series":["smokeCampFire"],"opts":{"x":"date","y":"pm25","xType":"date","yLabel":"µg/m³","fromZero":true}},{"id":"diurnal","type":"line","title":"The day, from the readings","caption":"Means by hour of the day (Pacific) over every half-hourly run logged: buses in service, open CHP incidents, the frame-change index, temperature.","series":["diurnal"],"opts":{"x":"hour","y":["buses","chp","cams","temp"],"xType":"number","names":{"buses":"buses in service","chp":"open CHP incidents","cams":"frame change","temp":"°F at KCIC"}}},{"id":"diurnalTemp","type":"matrix","title":"Mean temperature by month and hour, 2023–2025","caption":"The airport's hourly record; each cell is the mean of that hour over the month's days.","series":["diurnalTemp"],"opts":{"row":"month","col":"hour","value":"temp","rowOrder":["Jan","Feb","Mar","Apr","May","Jun","Jul","Aug","Sep","Oct","Nov","Dec"],"colOrder":[0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23],"fmt":"num"}}],"reading":["In the 400 days to 4 November 2026 the airport reported 2 storms of at least 0.5 in (runs of rain separated by 24 dry hours), 3.6 in of rain in all. 1 storm with a resolved peak in the window (a rise to at least 1.5 × the pre-storm flow); the lag is not yet measurable, which takes 3. Across the whole window the hourly rain and flow series show no resolvable lag (the largest correlation is r = 0.04).","After a peak the daily flow falls as an exponential over days 3–20 with τ = 10.9 days (median of 30 peaks, interquartile range 9.4–13.8; median r² 0.94), fitted as ln Q against time in the manner of Brutsaert & Nieber (1977) and Tallaksen (1995) on runs of strictly falling daily means — the USGS record 1930–1986 and DWR's 1997–2026. The Brutsaert–Nieber slope of log(−dQ/dt) against log Q over the same days is a median 2.16; a linear reservoir gives 1.","The 57 annual instantaneous peaks USGS published for the site (water years 1931–1997; one carries a qualification code, 0 estimated, 1 marked historic; all are used) fit a Gumbel distribution by the method of moments (Gumbel 1958) with 2-, 10-, 50- and 100-year flows of 3,875, 7,747, 11,141 and 12,576 cfs; the 100-year value's standard error is 1,370 cfs (Kite 1977). The largest recorded peak was 13,100 cfs on 1 January 1997. The curve is fitted to those 1931–1997 peaks only. DWR's hourly record at the Bidwell Park gauge is a separate record with its own rating: hourly maxima for water years 1998–2027, the largest 9,873 cfs on 4 February 2025, which would sit at about the 27-year level on that curve; water year 2027's maximum so far, 40 cfs on 23 October 2026, ranks 27 of 27 among those years.","Chico's PM2.5 monitor recorded 0 days above the 24-hour standard of 35 µg/m³ (40 CFR 50.13) in 2025, of 333 days sampled; over 1999–2025 the count runs from 0 to 33 days (2020). In the Camp Fire fortnight, 8 November 2018 to 22 November 2018, 12 of 15 sampled days were above the standard, with a maximum daily mean of 417.1 µg/m³ on 16 November 2018. Across the 4 events that peaked above 100 µg/m³ and were followed by a clean day, the daily mean fell back to 35 µg/m³ or below a median 5.5 days after the peak (interquartile range 4.3–7.0); 66 % of all exceedance days fall in June–November. No exceptional-events exclusion (40 CFR 50.14) is applied — these are the days as measured.","The half-hourly readings logged over 64 days put the bus fleet's daily maximum at 08:00, open CHP incidents' at 09:00 and the temperature's at 16:00 (Pacific time); the bus curve is the timetable, not demand. The highway frame-change index over 64 days peaks at 06:00.","At the airport over 2023–2025, the mean July day swings 25.8 °F between 06:00 and 18:00 (93 days of hourly reports), against 13.5 °F in January (93 days)."],"limits":["The USGS gauge drains 72.4 square miles of canyon and slope above town; the town's own runoff and the creek below the Lindo Channel and Sycamore diversions are outside it, and DWR's gauge at the head of Bidwell Park is treated as the same creek, not certified as the same cross-section.","Rain is measured at the airport on the valley floor, not in the canyon where the creek's water falls, and the foothills receive more; the runoff ratio is gauge runoff over airport rainfall and is not a runoff coefficient of the basin.","The airport reports precipitation once an hour, with hours missing from the archive (5,848 of 9,600 hours in the window reported), so storm totals are floors and the rain-to-peak lag is no finer than an hour; 1 of 2 storms had no resolved peak at the gauge (no hourly flow, or no rise to 1.5 × the pre-storm flow) and carry no lag.","The archive's precipitation is incomplete beyond its missing hours: in the 72 hours before this water year's peak flow (40 cfs on 23 October 2026) it reports 0.00 in over 51 reported hours, so the storm count and totals are floors and the lag statistics rest only on the storms it did record.","CDEC's hourly clock is read as Pacific Standard Time the year round; the USGS daily record ends in September 1986 and DWR's hourly record begins in July 1997, so the years between have no daily flow, and the recession fits and the modern maxima carry each record's own rating.","Log-Pearson III was not fitted: the Bulletin 17C frequency factors are not implemented here, so the frequency curve is Gumbel only, fitted to the 57 USGS instantaneous peaks of water years 1931–1997 and to nothing since; DWR's hourly maxima from 1998 on are a separate record at a different gauge with its own rating, hourly means that sit below the instantaneous peak, ranked only among themselves and placed on the curve for comparison, not fitted to it.","The PM2.5 record moves between monitors and methods (Chico-Manzanita Ave (filter) 1999–2012; Chico-East Avenue (filter) 2012–2026; Chico-East Avenue (continuous) 2012–2026); a year's exceedance count is a count of sampled days, and the filter years, sampled one day in three or six, undercount.","The diurnal curves rest on 64 days of readings; a bus count is the timetable, an incident count at an instant is a queue length, and the camera index is a frame-change measure over a road mask by daylight only, not a vehicle count."],"taus":[{"label":"Creek recession","seconds":941208.3060849794,"lo":814589.872344739,"hi":1188666.9021974455,"kind":"relaxation","range":"iqr","note":"median τ of 30 peaks, interquartile range"},{"label":"Smoke event clearing","seconds":475200,"lo":367200,"hi":604800,"kind":"relaxation","range":"iqr","note":"median of 4 events over 100 µg/m³, peak to the first day at or below 35"},{"label":"The day","seconds":86400,"kind":"period","note":"buses, incidents, frame change and temperature all keep it"}],"laws":["naaqs-pm25","exceptional-events","clean-air-act","nfip"],"sources":[{"name":"USGS NWIS daily values, Big Chico Creek near Chico (11384000)","url":"https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?format=json&sites=11384000&parameterCd=00060&startDT=1930-10-01&endDT=2026-11-04","note":"parameter 00060 daily mean discharge, cfs, 1930-10-01 to 1986-09-30; the site file gives drain_area_va 72.4"},{"name":"USGS NWIS peak streamflow, 11384000","url":"https://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/peak?site_no=11384000&agency_cd=USGS&format=rdb","note":"peak_dt, peak_va (cfs), gage_ht, peak_cd — annual instantaneous peaks, water years 1931–1997"},{"name":"California DWR CDEC station BIC, Big Chico Creek near Chico","url":"https://cdec.water.ca.gov/dynamicapp/staMeta?station_id=BIC","note":"sensor 20 (flow, cfs) and 1 (stage, ft), hourly from 15-minute data since 1997-07-21; times PST"},{"name":"Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archive, Chico Municipal Airport (CIC)","url":"https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/request/asos.py?station=CIC&data=tmpf&data=p01i&data=drct&data=sknt&year1=2026&month1=11&day1=1&year2=2026&month2=12&day2=1&tz=America%2FLos_Angeles&format=onlycomma&latlon=no&missing=M&trace=T&direct=no&report_type=2&report_type=3","note":"tmpf, p01i (one-hour precipitation, inches; T trace, M missing), routine and special reports, America/Los_Angeles"},{"name":"EPA AQS pre-generated daily summary files, PM2.5 (88101 FRM/FEM and 88502 non-FRM)","url":"https://aqs.epa.gov/aqsweb/airdata/daily_88101_2026.zip","note":"County Code 007, City Name Chico: Site Num, POC, Sample Duration, Observation Percent, Date Local, Arithmetic Mean"},{"name":"Chico Flow readings (src/pipeline/readings.ts, every half hour)","url":"https://chicoflow.com/about/physics/data/pulse/diurnal.csv","note":"kinds buses, busSpeed, chp/chpCount, temp, aqi, cam, stage, flow; ts in UTC"},{"name":"Brutsaert, W. & Nieber, J.L. (1977) \"Regionalized drought flow hydrographs from a mature glaciated plateau\", Water Resources Research 13:637","url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/WR013i003p00637"},{"name":"Tallaksen, L.M. (1995) \"A review of baseflow recession analysis\", Journal of Hydrology 165:349","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(94)02540-R"},{"name":"Gumbel, E.J. (1958) Statistics of Extremes, Columbia University Press","url":"https://doi.org/10.7312/gumb92958"},{"name":"Kite, G.W. (1977) Frequency and Risk Analyses in Hydrology, Water Resources Publications","url":"https://www.wrpllc.com/books/frah.html","note":"standard error of the Gumbel T-year quantile by moments"},{"name":"40 CFR 50.13 — the 24-hour PM2.5 standard, 35 µg/m³","url":"https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-40/chapter-I/subchapter-C/part-50/section-50.13"},{"name":"40 CFR 50.14 — treatment of exceptional events","url":"https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-40/chapter-I/subchapter-C/part-50/section-50.14"}],"method":"Storms: the airport's hourly rain (the largest one-hour value reported in each clock hour, routine and special reports) is cut into runs separated by 24 dry hours; runs of 0.5 in or more are storms. For each, the creek's peak in the storm and the 72 hours after it (DWR's hourly flow, CDEC BIC, clock read as PST) gives the lag from the hour of heaviest rain, and gauge runoff above a constant pre-storm baseflow (the lowest flow in the six hours before the storm) over the rain volume across 72.4 sq mi gives the runoff ratio; a cross-correlation of the two hourly series over the 400-day window gives the lag of greatest correlation. Recession: on the daily record (USGS daily means to 1986, DWR's hourly means by PST day since 1997) every local maximum followed by 20 strictly falling days is a candidate; for the 30 largest, ln Q is regressed on time over days 3–20 (τ = 1/k), and log(−dQ/dt) on log Q for the Brutsaert–Nieber slope. Flood frequency: Gumbel by the method of moments on the 57 USGS annual instantaneous peaks, quantiles Q_T = x̄ + K_T s with Kite's standard error; DWR's hourly maxima by water year are listed and ranked among themselves. Smoke: one daily PM2.5 value per day from Chico's monitors, a continuous monitor's daily mean (hourly rows with at least 75 % of the day observed, else the block average) before a filter sample; days above 35 µg/m³ per year; events are runs of sampled days above 35, and for those peaking above 100 the days from the peak to the first sampled day at or below 35. The day: means by Pacific hour of every reading the fast loop has logged, published once 3 days exist (28 for the camera index); the airport's mean temperature by month and hour over 2023–2025, amplitude the curve's maximum less its minimum.","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T09:23:59.719Z"}