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referendum","law":null,"district":2,"yes":2753,"no":1847,"yesShare":0.598,"precincts":6},{"year":2022,"prop":"31","label":"2022 Prop 31 — flavored tobacco referendum","law":null,"district":3,"yes":3552,"no":2226,"yesShare":0.615,"precincts":12},{"year":2022,"prop":"31","label":"2022 Prop 31 — flavored tobacco referendum","law":null,"district":4,"yes":2841,"no":1419,"yesShare":0.667,"precincts":9},{"year":2022,"prop":"31","label":"2022 Prop 31 — flavored tobacco referendum","law":null,"district":5,"yes":1067,"no":683,"yesShare":0.61,"precincts":6},{"year":2022,"prop":"31","label":"2022 Prop 31 — flavored tobacco referendum","law":null,"district":6,"yes":3794,"no":2341,"yesShare":0.618,"precincts":13},{"year":2022,"prop":"31","label":"2022 Prop 31 — flavored tobacco referendum","law":null,"district":7,"yes":2911,"no":1545,"yesShare":0.653,"precincts":11}],"city":[{"year":2024,"basis":"districts","precincts":46,"totreg":57954,"dem":25637,"rep":16337,"npp":11670,"demShare":0.435,"repShare":0.277,"nppShare":0.198,"totvote":45789,"turnout":0.79,"presDem":26904,"presRep":16320,"presDemShare":0.622,"presMargin":24.5},{"year":2024,"basis":"place","precincts":58,"totreg":68770,"dem":29080,"rep":21065,"npp":13470,"demShare":0.417,"repShare":0.302,"nppShare":0.193,"totvote":54867,"turnout":0.798,"presDem":30812,"presRep":21007,"presDemShare":0.595,"presMargin":18.9},{"year":2022,"basis":"place","precincts":80,"totreg":68567,"dem":28853,"rep":20048,"npp":13846,"demShare":0.42,"repShare":0.292,"nppShare":0.201,"totvote":41698,"turnout":0.608,"presDem":null,"presRep":null,"presDemShare":null,"presMargin":null},{"year":2020,"basis":"place","precincts":62,"totreg":70821,"dem":29984,"rep":21287,"npp":15246,"demShare":0.418,"repShare":0.297,"nppShare":0.212,"totvote":60791,"turnout":0.858,"presDem":35475,"presRep":22433,"presDemShare":0.613,"presMargin":22.5}],"seats2026":[{"district":2,"presMargin2024":16.9,"presMarginLabel2024":"D+16.9","presDemShare2024":0.584,"turnout2024":0.77,"totreg2024":8196,"demShare2024":0.408,"repShare2024":0.311,"nppShare2024":0.194,"winner2022":"KASEY REYNOLDS","winnerShare2022":0.558,"runnerUp2022":"MORGAN KENNEDY","runnerUpShare2022":0.442,"votes2022":4427,"precincts2022":6,"suppressedPrecincts2022":0},{"district":4,"presMargin2024":39.7,"presMarginLabel2024":"D+39.7","presDemShare2024":0.698,"turnout2024":0.775,"totreg2024":7599,"demShare2024":0.482,"repShare2024":0.216,"nppShare2024":0.207,"winner2022":"ADDISON WINSLOW","winnerShare2022":0.577,"runnerUp2022":"NICHOLE NAVA","runnerUpShare2022":0.423,"votes2022":4043,"precincts2022":9,"suppressedPrecincts2022":0},{"district":6,"presMargin2024":16.6,"presMarginLabel2024":"D+16.6","presDemShare2024":0.583,"turnout2024":0.823,"totreg2024":9615,"demShare2024":0.406,"repShare2024":0.329,"nppShare2024":0.184,"winner2022":"TOM VAN OVERBEEK","winnerShare2022":0.588,"runnerUp2022":"JESICA GIANNOLA","runnerUpShare2022":0.412,"votes2022":5855,"precincts2022":13,"suppressedPrecincts2022":0}]},"figures":[{"id":"precincts","type":"map","title":"Two-party presidential vote by precinct, November 2024","caption":"Each precinct placed in a council district, coloured by the Democratic less the Republican share of the two-party presidential vote, in points; the district outlines are the edges the placed precincts share across districts, not the city's stored layer.","series":["precincts","districtCentroids"],"opts":{"geo":"/about/physics/data/votes/precincts.geojson","value":"presMargin","join":"srprec","diverging":true,"legend":"two-party margin 2024","outline":"/about/physics/data/votes/districts.geojson","labels":"districtCentroids"}},{"id":"districts","type":"bars","title":"Two-party presidential vote by council district, 2024","caption":"Points of Democratic less Republican share of the two-party vote; districts 2, 4 and 6 are on the November 2026 ballot.","series":["districts"],"opts":{"x":"district","y":"presMargin","xType":"number","yLabel":"margin, points","diverging":true}},{"id":"winners","type":"scatter","title":"Council winner's share and the district's presidential vote","caption":"The 7 council contests of 2022 and 2024 held on the current district map, against their district's 2024 two-party presidential margin; no line is fitted across contests.","series":["winners"],"opts":{"x":"presMargin","y":"sharePct","label":"candidate","xLabel":"two-party presidential margin 2024, points","yLabel":"winner's share, %"}},{"id":"nationalisation","type":"table","title":"Within each contest: the winner's precinct share on the precinct's partisan share","caption":"Ordinary least squares over the contest's counted precincts with at least ten council votes; x is the two-party Democratic share for president (2024) or governor (2022) in the precinct.","series":["nationalisation"],"opts":{"columns":[{"key":"year","label":"Year","fmt":"num"},{"key":"district","label":"District","fmt":"num"},{"key":"candidate","label":"Winner","fmt":"text"},{"key":"slope","label":"Slope","fmt":"num"},{"key":"r2","label":"r²","fmt":"num"},{"key":"n","label":"Precincts","fmt":"num"}]}},{"id":"contests","type":"table","title":"Council contests, 2022 and 2024","series":["contests"],"opts":{"columns":[{"key":"year","label":"Year","fmt":"num"},{"key":"district","label":"District","fmt":"num"},{"key":"districtMap","label":"Map","fmt":"text"},{"key":"candidate","label":"Candidate","fmt":"text"},{"key":"votes","label":"Votes","fmt":"num"},{"key":"share","label":"Share","fmt":"pct"},{"key":"won","label":"Won","fmt":"num"},{"key":"precinctsCounted","label":"Precincts counted","fmt":"num"},{"key":"precincts","label":"of","fmt":"num"}],"sort":"year"}},{"id":"props","type":"matrix","title":"Propositions: yes share by district","caption":"2024 and 2022 by the seven districts, each precinct placed by its ballots or by the other year's ballot precincts.","series":["props"],"opts":{"row":"label","col":"district","value":"yesShare","colOrder":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7],"fmt":"pct","diverging":true}},{"id":"seats","type":"table","title":"The districts on the November 2026 ballot","series":["seats2026"],"opts":{"columns":[{"key":"district","label":"District","fmt":"num"},{"key":"presMarginLabel2024","label":"President 2024","fmt":"text"},{"key":"demShare2024","label":"Dem. reg.","fmt":"pct"},{"key":"repShare2024","label":"Rep. reg.","fmt":"pct"},{"key":"nppShare2024","label":"NPP reg.","fmt":"pct"},{"key":"turnout2024","label":"Turnout 2024","fmt":"pct"},{"key":"winner2022","label":"Won 2022","fmt":"text"},{"key":"winnerShare2022","label":"Share","fmt":"pct"}]}}],"reading":["Chico has elected its council by district since November 2020; that change is coincident in time with this record and is not tested here as the cause of anything. In November 2024 the seven council districts held 57,954 registered voters at the close of registration: 43.5 % Democratic, 27.7 % Republican, 19.8 % with no party preference. 45,789 ballots were cast, 79.0 % of registrants over the 46 precincts reporting both; turnout ran from 74.1 % in District 5 to 82.7 % in District 1.","For president in 2024 the districts voted from D+48.8 in District 5 to D+10.3 in District 1, two-party; the seven together voted D+24.5 (a Democratic share of 62.2 % of the two-party vote, which leaves out the 3.9 % cast for other candidates), and for Congress D+17.2. By district: 5 D+48.8, 7 D+40.8, 4 D+39.7, 2 D+16.9, 6 D+16.6, 3 D+16.4 and 1 D+10.3.","Of the 46 precincts placed in a district, 22 cast a 2024 council ballot (districts 1, 3, 5 and 7) and 24 were placed by the 2022 precincts holding most of their area and those precincts' full-term ballots (districts 2, 4 and 6); 12 precincts with a Chico address were placed in none. The two years' ballot maps overlap by 0.2 % of the 2024 council-ballot precincts' sampled area and 2.2 % of 2022's. Against the city's stored district layer, the centroid of a 2024 council-ballot precinct fell in the district it voted in for 12 of 22 precincts and in another district for 10; the 2022 District 3 short-term contest, which filled the rest of a term begun in 2020, was cast in 7 precincts that also voted in District 2, 4 or 6, and 14 of its 15 precincts have their centroid in the stored layer's District 3, whose population fields sum to 90,224 over the seven districts.","Within each council contest the winner's share of a precinct's council vote is regressed on the precinct's two-party Democratic share in the partisan contest on the same ballot (president in 2024, governor in 2022): over the 8 contests the slope runs from -0.91 to 1.19 (median -0.56) and r² from 0.25 to 0.96 (median 0.67), on 4 to 14 precincts each; in 3 the winner's share rose with the Democratic share and in 5 it fell. The steepest: BRYCE GOLDSTEIN (District 7, 2024): slope 1.19, r² 0.76, n = 5; the flattest: TOM VAN OVERBEEK (District 6, 2022): slope -0.50, r² 0.25, n = 12.","On the Statewide Database's Chico place label, the same rule in both years, the Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote was 61.3 % in 2020 and 59.5 % in 2024, a change of −1.8 points; registration moved −0.1 points Democratic, +0.5 Republican and −1.9 no party preference over the same four years, on 70,821 and 68,770 registrants.","The council members whose terms end in November 2026 hold District 2, District 4 and District 6. For president in 2024 those districts voted District 2 D+16.9, District 4 D+39.7 and District 6 D+16.6; their registration is 40.8 % Democratic, 31.1 % Republican and 19.4 % no party preference in District 2, 48.2 % Democratic, 21.6 % Republican and 20.7 % no party preference in District 4 and 40.6 % Democratic, 32.9 % Republican and 18.4 % no party preference in District 6. In 2022 KASEY REYNOLDS won District 2 with 55.8 % of 4,427 votes, ADDISON WINSLOW won District 4 with 57.7 % of 4,043 votes and TOM VAN OVERBEEK won District 6 with 58.8 % of 5,855 votes."],"limits":["The specification's placement — each precinct polygon's centroid against the city's stored district layer — disagrees with the ballot record for 10 of the 22 precincts that cast a 2024 council ballot (2215 (voted in 1, centroid in the layer's 5); 2216 (voted in 1, centroid in the layer's 4); 4203 (voted in 1, centroid in the layer's 5); 2213 (voted in 3, centroid in the layer's 2); 3212 (voted in 3, centroid in the layer's 6); 5205 (voted in 3, centroid in the layer's 2); 3216 (voted in 5, centroid in the layer's 4); 4204 (voted in 5, centroid in the layer's 7); 3217 (voted in 7, centroid in the layer's 4); 5207 (voted in 7, centroid in the layer's 6)), so the ballots place the precincts here and the layer is reported as the check; the layer's population fields sum to 90,224.","Districts 2, 4 and 6 had no 2024 council contest; their 2024 precincts are placed by the 2022 precinct polygons holding at least half of a grid sample of their area and those precincts' full-term 2022 ballots, and 2022's precincts in 1, 3, 5 and 7 the same way from 2024's; the two ballot maps overlap by 0.2 % and 2.2 % of sampled area, the polygons being census-block approximations, and 12 Chico-address precincts could not be placed and are outside every district total.","The 2022 \"District 3 (2020) Short Term\" contest filled the rest of a term begun under the 2020 district map: 7 of its 15 precincts also voted in District 2, 4 or 6, so it places no precinct on the current map; its result is listed with the map it was held on and left out of the current-district scatter.","Precinct ids are reused for redrawn precincts, so no value joins on an id across years: 2022 is placed by its own ballots and polygons, and 2020, which has no council-contest file, is read city-wide only on the Statewide Database's place label — the city of most of a precinct's registration addresses, which includes unincorporated addresses with a Chico post office; the seven-district total is the city as the districts define it, and the two are reported separately.","Two-party shares and margins leave out votes for other candidates (3.9 % of the 2024 presidential vote in the districts); 7 counts are suppressed in the source ('***') and are treated as missing, so every share is computed on the precincts reporting both its numerator and denominator, and a council result with a suppressed precinct is shown with its precinct count.","The district outlines are drawn from the placed precincts' own edges, read by which district lies half a metre to either side (50.1 km between districts, 99.3 km on the outside); adjacent precinct polygons trace the same lines with different vertices, so exact endpoint matching finds only 1.9 km of shared edges and is not used.","The within-contest slopes describe 8 contests of 4 to 14 precincts each with the winner's share as the outcome; they are not a model of any voter, and the Statewide Database's local files for Butte carry candidate contests only, so no city measure (Measure H of November 2022 among them) is measured here."],"taus":[{"label":"council term","seconds":123600600,"kind":"period","range":null,"note":"the median term in the council roster; half the seats return to the ballot every two years"}],"laws":["cvra","elections-code","elections-districting","costa-hawkins"],"sources":[{"name":"Statewide Database — 2024 general, Butte County statement of vote by precinct","url":"https://statewidedatabase.org/pub/data/G24/c007/c007_g24_sov_data_by_g24_srprec.csv","note":"TOTREG, TOTVOTE, PRS*, CNG*, PR_*_Y/N per srprec; CNTYTOT row dropped"},{"name":"Statewide Database — 2024 registration by precinct","url":"https://statewidedatabase.org/pub/data/G24/c007/c007_g24_registration_by_g24_srprec.csv","note":"totreg_r, dem, rep, dcl (no party preference) at the close of registration"},{"name":"Statewide Database — 2024 local city contests by precinct","url":"https://statewidedatabase.org/pub/data/G24/c007/c007_g24_sov_local_city_by_g24_srprec.csv","note":"Chico City Council DIST 1, 3, 5, 7: candidate votes per srprec; *** suppressed"},{"name":"Statewide Database — 2024 precinct to city","url":"https://statewidedatabase.org/pub/data/G24/c007/c007_g24_srprec_to_city.csv","note":"srprec, city (the place of most registrants)"},{"name":"Statewide Database — 2024 precinct polygons","url":"https://statewidedatabase.org/pub/data/G24/c007/srprec_007_g24_v01.geojson.zip","note":"srprec_007_g24_v01.geojson inside the zip; CRS84"},{"name":"Statewide Database — 2022 general, statement of vote by precinct","url":"https://statewidedatabase.org/pub/data/G22/c007/c007_g22_sov_data_by_g22_srprec.csv","note":"TOTREG, TOTVOTE, GOVDEM01/GOVREP01, PR_*_Y/N"},{"name":"Statewide Database — 2022 registration by precinct","url":"https://statewidedatabase.org/pub/data/G22/c007/c007_g22_registration_by_g22_srprec.csv","note":"totreg_r, dem, rep, dcl"},{"name":"Statewide Database — 2022 local city contests by precinct","url":"https://statewidedatabase.org/pub/data/G22/c007/c007_g22_sov_local_city_by_g22_srprec.csv","note":"Chico City Council DIST 2, 4, 6 and DIST 3 (2020) Short Term"},{"name":"Statewide Database — 2022 precinct to city","url":"https://statewidedatabase.org/pub/data/G22/c007/c007_g22_srprec_to_city.csv"},{"name":"Statewide Database — 2022 precinct polygons (shapefile)","url":"https://statewidedatabase.org/pub/data/G22/c007/srprec_007_g22_v01_shp.zip","note":"srprec_007_g22_v01.shp and .dbf (SRPREC); NAD83 degrees"},{"name":"Statewide Database — 2020 general, statement of vote by precinct","url":"https://statewidedatabase.org/pub/data/G20/c007/c007_g20_sov_data_by_g20_srprec.csv","note":"TOTREG, TOTVOTE, PRSDEM01/PRSREP01"},{"name":"Statewide Database — 2020 registration by precinct","url":"https://statewidedatabase.org/pub/data/G20/c007/c007_g20_registration_by_g20_srprec.csv","note":"totreg_r, dem, rep, dcl"},{"name":"Statewide Database — 2020 precinct to city","url":"https://statewidedatabase.org/pub/data/G20/c007/c007_g20_srprec_to_city.csv"},{"name":"City of Chico GIS — council district layer","url":"https://services1.arcgis.com/afGgcgqM3caiSYv7/arcgis/rest/services/City_of_Chico_Districts/FeatureServer/0","note":"the geo table, key districts: seven polygons with DISTRICT and POP_TOT; the cross-check"},{"name":"Chico City Clerk — council roster and terms","url":"https://chicoca.gov/Government/City-Council","note":"council_members.term_end names the seats on the November 2026 ballot"}],"method":"A precinct's district is read from the ballots it cast: in the Statewide Database's local-city file a precinct with votes or a suppressed count in a full-term council contest voted in that district (1, 3, 5 and 7 in 2024; 2, 4 and 6 in 2022; the 2022 District 3 short-term contest, held on the 2020 map, places nothing). A 2024 precinct with no 2024 council contest is placed by a 24 × 24 grid sample of its polygon: the 2022 ballot precinct polygons (the shapefile, read here) holding at least half of the sampled points give its district; 2022 precincts are placed the same way from 2024's. The specification's placement — each precinct polygon's area centroid (outer rings positive, holes negative, MultiPolygon parts summed) tested by ray casting against the city's stored district layer — is computed and reported as a check. Per district the precinct counts are summed with every share on the precincts reporting both its numerator and its denominator: registration by party from the registration file at the close of registration (dcl is no party preference), turnout as TOTVOTE over TOTREG (ballots cast over the registration at the close of registration), the presidential and congressional two-party shares (the CNG columns of both congressional districts summed, since a precinct lies in one), and each proposition's yes and no; a margin is one hundred times the Democratic less the Republican two-party share, which leaves out other candidates. Council results sum each candidate's votes over the contest's precincts with no suppressed cell; the winner is the candidate with most, and a contest with a suppressed precinct is shown as n of m precincts. Within each contest the winner's share of the precinct's council vote is regressed by ordinary least squares (physics.ts ols) on the precinct's two-party Democratic share for president (2024) or governor (2022, since precinct ids do not carry across years) over counted precincts with at least 10 council votes; the cross-contest scatter carries no fitted line. 2020, which has no council-contest file and different precincts, is read on the place label. The district outlines served with the map are the placed precincts' ring edges classified by point-in-polygon half a metre to either side of each edge's midpoint — interior edges dropped, an edge between two districts kept once from the lower district's side, the rest the outer boundary — chained into polylines; the district labels sit at the area-weighted mean of each district's precinct centroids. Seats on the 2026 ballot are the council roster's members with a term ending in November 2026.","fetched_at":"2026-11-02T03:24:47.881Z"}